2月9日汇市晚评：美联储多官员讲话来袭 地缘风险升温

Core Viewpoint - The global foreign exchange market is experiencing a narrow range of fluctuations with low volatility, and the trading atmosphere is relatively quiet, particularly around the key level of the US dollar index at 97.496, indicating a lack of clear directional signals [1]. Group 1: Market Overview - The US dollar index is engaged in a range-bound trading pattern, with both bulls and bears contesting around the 97-98 range, showing signs of reduced momentum [1]. - Major non-USD currencies are performing steadily without clear direction, with the British pound closing at 1.3614 against the dollar and the dollar-yen pair trading around 156.5600 [1]. Group 2: Key Data and Events - Important upcoming data includes Japan's December trade balance, Switzerland's January consumer confidence index, and the Eurozone's February Sentix investor confidence index, which are expected to impact currency movements based on deviations from forecasts [1]. - The ASEAN finance ministers and central bank deputies' working group meeting is taking place, which may influence Southeast Asian currencies and global market sentiment through policy statements and cooperation developments [1]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The US dollar index is in a consolidation phase, with a downward channel formed since January 19, and currently holding above the 5-day moving average at 97.52 while facing resistance from the 10-day moving average at 97.89 [1]. - The euro against the dollar shows a bullish trend with key support levels at 1.1750-1.1765, and a potential upward movement towards 1.1900-1.1920 if it breaks above 1.1835 [2]. - The British pound against the dollar is in a state of indecision with increasing divergence between bulls and bears, and a need for clear signals to determine the next direction [3]. - The dollar-yen pair maintains a strong upward structure with key support levels at 156.30-156.50, and a potential breakout above 157.00 could open further upward movement [3]. Group 4: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The Middle East situation is tense with escalating US-Iran confrontations, which could lead to volatility in energy and safe-haven assets [4]. - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict is prompting new sanctions from the EU and discussions for peace talks, impacting energy prices and currency valuations [4]. - Japan's recent election results may influence the yen's value and stock pricing, as the ruling party plans to lower consumption tax [4]. Group 5: Economic Indicators - The Michigan University consumer confidence index has shown improvement, with one-year inflation expectations dropping to a 13-month low, which may affect the Federal Reserve's policy direction [5]. - Upcoming speeches from Federal Reserve officials and key economic data releases are anticipated to influence market sentiment and asset pricing [6].