Hamilton Lane co-CEO: Recent market volatility displays lack of nuance

Valuation and Market Dynamics - The public markets are experiencing valuation fallout due to a mark-to-market approach using public market comparables, leading to instability [1] - There is a loss of nuance in stock picking as the market has shifted towards a passive trading model, making it difficult to distinguish between true winners and losers [2] - Valuations in the public markets vary significantly, from five times to 200 times forward, while private sector valuations, such as those of SpaceX and OpenAI, are rapidly increasing [3] Private Market Insights - The private market is currently receiving significant hype from follow-on financing rounds, which are opening up to retail investors, indicating a potential shift in investment dynamics [4] - There is a wide array of valuations in the private markets, with many companies being small and not widely recognized [4] - The private equity sector is facing challenges, as concerns over private credit and the ownership of software by private equity firms are negatively impacting stock performance despite double-digit revenue growth in asset management [6] Technology and Disruption - Anthropic is expected to enter the market with an IPO, but the recent downturn in technology stocks raises questions about its valuation despite being seen as a market disruptor [7] - The software industry is adapting to incorporate AI tools rather than starting from scratch, which may influence the competitive landscape and the role of disruptors like Anthropic [9] - The perception of Anthropic as a disruptor may vary, with some companies viewing it as a potential partner rather than a direct competitor [10] Private Equity Trends - The traditional "exit markup" in private equity returns has diminished, indicating a shift towards more accurate valuation practices within the industry [11] - The private equity industry has improved its valuation methods, moving away from sandbagging valuations and waiting for upside surprises, which is seen as a healthier approach [12][14] - The recent political developments in Japan are expected to enhance the attractiveness of the private equity market, with increased capital deployment from US-based firms into Japanese equities [15][17]