冲量资金“退潮”，信用债ETF规模“五连降” 缩水逾千亿

Core Viewpoint - The credit bond ETF market has experienced a significant capital withdrawal since the beginning of 2026, with a total reduction of over 100 billion yuan in scale, primarily driven by the reversal of capital inflows from the end of last year [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - The scale of credit bond ETFs peaked at 615.2 billion yuan in mid-December 2025 but has since declined for five consecutive weeks, dropping to 514.2 billion yuan by February 6, 2026, a decrease of 1.01 billion yuan [2][4]. - In January 2026, the credit bond ETF scale fell by approximately 852 million yuan in the first three weeks, followed by a further decline of 89 million yuan in the last week of January and an additional 69 million yuan in the first week of February [2][4]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - The Sci-Tech Innovation Bond ETF has been the most affected, with a reduction of over 700 million yuan, including a drop of 688 million yuan in January alone [5][6]. - The leading product in the Sci-Tech Innovation Bond ETF, the Jiashi Sci-Tech Bond ETF, saw the largest weekly decline of 42 million yuan in early February, accounting for 53% of the total decline in that week [5]. Group 3: Valuation and Opportunities - The continuous decline in credit bond ETF scale has led to selling pressure on constituent bonds, resulting in a certain degree of "overselling" [7]. - The spread of constituent bonds has narrowed, with the median spread dropping from 8.63 basis points to 3.34 basis points, indicating a potential valuation recovery window [7][9]. - As liquidity impacts subside and market sentiment improves, there is an expectation for reduced net outflow pressure and potential opportunities in constituent bonds as their valuation attractiveness increases [6][9][10].