太平洋证券:给予小菜园(00999)“买入”评级 探索新业务模式
智通财经网·2026-02-09 09:54

Core Viewpoint - Pacific Securities forecasts that Xiaocaiyuan (00999) will achieve net profit attributable to shareholders of 716 million yuan, 910 million yuan, and 1.143 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 23%, 27%, and 26% respectively, and expects EPS of 0.61 yuan, 0.77 yuan, and 0.97 yuan for the same period, with PE ratios of 15X, 12X, and 9X respectively, maintaining a "Buy" rating due to the company's rapid store expansion and proactive adjustments [1] Group 1: Joint Venture and Business Expansion - The company announced the establishment of a joint venture, in which Xiaocaiyuan holds a 70% stake, focusing on four main areas: (1) omnichannel e-commerce + local life; (2) supply chain business; (3) quality lifestyle stations (small stores); and (4) fourth-party distribution business, aiming to explore new business formats, models, and products during operations [1][2] - The joint venture is expected to enhance brand reach and revenue flexibility in the medium term, while short-term focus should be on the pace of implementation and efficiency of input-output [2] Group 2: Operational Adjustments - The company has proactively adjusted its business model by reducing the proportion of takeaway orders and lowering prices for core dishes, decreasing takeaway revenue share from nearly 40% to about 30%-35%, with an average order value of approximately 70 yuan, which may temporarily suppress same-store sales, revenue, and profits, but aims to optimize customer structure and dining experience [3] - This adjustment is expected to lead to a healthier "quality-price ratio" path for the business model [3] Group 3: Store Network and Regional Expansion - By the end of 2025, the company plans to have over 810 stores, a net increase of over 143 from the end of 2024, with a target of approximately 1,000 stores by 2026, all adopting a direct-operated model [4] - The expansion strategy includes both densifying existing areas and gradually entering new regions, with a clear national layout characterized by high density in East and Central China, including core areas such as Jiangsu (267 stores), Anhui (144 stores), and Shanghai (78 stores), while also entering regions like Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Shandong, and Hubei [4]