【信达能源】钢铁周报：钢材库存压力有限，重视阶段性回调的配置机会

Market Performance - The steel sector declined by 3.02% this week, underperforming the broader market, with the Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 index down by 1.33% to 4643.60 [7][70] - Sub-sectors such as special steel, long products, and plate steel saw declines of 2.10%, 1.88%, and 3.84% respectively [8][71] Supply Situation - As of February 6, the capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces in sampled steel companies was 85.7%, an increase of 0.22 percentage points week-on-week [14][66] - Electric furnace capacity utilization was 48.1%, down by 7.59 percentage points week-on-week [14][66] - The production of five major steel products totaled 720.8 million tons, a decrease of 1.55 million tons week-on-week [14][66] Demand Situation - The consumption of five major steel products was 760.7 million tons, down by 41.08 million tons week-on-week, a decline of 5.12% [20][82] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 3.5 million tons, down by 3.25 million tons week-on-week, a significant drop of 48.24% [20][83] Inventory Situation - Social inventory of five major steel products reached 940.4 million tons, an increase of 49.68 million tons week-on-week, up by 5.58% [25][88] - Factory inventory of five major steel products was 397.3 million tons, an increase of 9.56 million tons week-on-week, up by 2.47% [25][88] Price & Profit Situation - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel was 3414.2 yuan/ton, down by 13.31 yuan/ton week-on-week, a decrease of 0.39% [66][94] - The comprehensive index for special steel was 6582.0 yuan/ton, down by 2.28 yuan/ton week-on-week, a decrease of 0.03% [66][94] - The profit for rebar from blast furnaces was 65 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.0 yuan/ton week-on-week, up by 27.45% [66][35] - The profit for construction steel from electric furnaces was -76 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.0 yuan/ton week-on-week, up by 5.00% [66][35] Raw Material Situation - The spot price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) at Rizhao Port was 764 yuan/ton, down by 29.0 yuan/ton week-on-week, a decrease of 3.66% [67][50] - The price of primary metallurgical coke was 1770 yuan/ton, unchanged week-on-week [67][50] Investment Recommendations - The steel sector is expected to have strong "anti-involution" characteristics and significant profit recovery potential, with high-quality steel companies showing upward elasticity in performance [69] - Key companies to focus on include regional leaders with advanced equipment and environmental standards, as well as those benefiting from the new energy cycle [69]