2000万辆二手车交易新高背后：车商利润触底，行业洗牌在即

Core Insights - The second-hand car market in China is projected to reach a transaction volume of 20.1 million units by 2025, with used new energy vehicles (NEVs) expected to exceed 1.6 million units, marking a year-on-year growth of over 40% [1] - The average growth rate of second-hand car sales has slowed down to 5.8% over the past five years, compared to an average of 10.3% in the previous decade, while the average profit margin in the industry has dropped to around 4% [1][3] - The average transaction price of second-hand cars has decreased from 66,700 yuan in March 2025 to 61,600 yuan in September 2025 [1] Market Trends - The proportion of registered second-hand car dealers increased to 73.2% in the first half of 2025, with 96 out of the top 100 companies being second-hand dealers [1] - The revenue from second-hand car sales for dealer groups has risen by 124% compared to 2024 [1] - The competition among second-hand car dealers is intensifying, with many individual operators exiting the market due to declining profits [2] Profitability Challenges - The average profit margin for second-hand cars is approximately 4%, with significant declines in profit per vehicle sold, from around 15,000 yuan five years ago to about 10,000 yuan currently [3] - Factors contributing to profit decline include price volatility of new cars, increased transparency in the market, and intensified competition [3] - The average transaction price for second-hand cars in 2025 is reported to be 64,100 yuan, a decrease of 140 yuan from 2024 [3] Impact of New Energy Vehicles - The penetration rate of second-hand NEVs has increased from 3.6% at the end of 2022 to 12% by December 2025 [6] - The transaction price distribution for second-hand NEVs shows an increase in the share of vehicles priced between 30,000 to 80,000 yuan, while the share of vehicles priced below 30,000 yuan has decreased [6] - The average three-year depreciation rate for NEVs is significantly higher than that of traditional fuel vehicles, with NEVs averaging a 43% retention rate compared to 62% for fuel vehicles [7] Strategic Shifts - Companies are exploring new growth avenues such as NEVs and second-hand car exports to adapt to market changes [5] - The overall second-hand car market is expected to grow by nearly 3% in 2025, while NEV transactions are projected to increase by approximately 50% year-on-year [7] - Major players like Yongda Automotive and Zhongsheng Automotive are shifting focus towards NEV channels and online sales models for second-hand vehicles [6][7]