‘Weakest bitcoin bear case in history’: Bernstein reiterates $150,000 price target for 2026

Core Viewpoint - Analysts at Bernstein maintain a bullish long-term outlook for bitcoin, asserting that the current drawdown represents the weakest bear case in its history and does not undermine its broader adoption or investment thesis [2][3]. Group 1: Current Market Conditions - The analysts describe the recent price weakness as a crisis of confidence rather than a failure of the underlying system, maintaining a price target of $150,000 for bitcoin by the end of 2026 [3]. - Bernstein notes that typical catalysts associated with past bitcoin downturns, such as major failures or systemic breakdowns, have not materialized, indicating a different cycle compared to previous bear markets [4]. Group 2: Institutional Support and Market Dynamics - Strong institutional alignment is highlighted, including a pro-bitcoin U.S. president, spot bitcoin ETF adoption, and growing corporate treasury participation, which support the argument that the current market differs from past downturns [4]. - The analysts argue that bitcoin is still trading as a liquidity-sensitive risk asset rather than a mature safe haven, with tighter financial conditions benefiting select assets like precious metals and AI-linked equities [6]. Group 3: Relevance in an AI-Driven Economy - Bernstein counters claims that bitcoin is losing relevance in an AI-driven economy, suggesting that blockchain and programmable wallets are well-suited for an emerging digital environment requiring global financial rails [7]. - The advantages of blockchain systems over traditional banking infrastructure are emphasized, particularly in the context of closed APIs and legacy integration challenges [7].