玻璃三连跌，后续行情如何演绎？

Market Overview - The main glass futures contract has experienced three consecutive days of decline, with trading volume gradually shrinking. As of February 6, 2026, the glass 2605 contract closed at 1057 RMB/ton, down 15 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.40% from the previous trading day [1] Supply Side - According to Mysteel's latest statistics, as of February 6, 2026, the float glass operating rate was 71.86%, unchanged from the previous week, but down 3.84 percentage points year-on-year. The float glass production was 1,055,765 tons, a decrease of 1,200 tons week-on-week (0.11% drop) and a year-on-year decrease of 34,450 tons (3.16% drop). This indicates that despite the upcoming Spring Festival, production enterprises are maintaining a strong willingness to operate at high capacity, resulting in limited supply contraction [4] Demand Side - As of January 30, 2026, the order days for deep processing enterprises were 6.35 days, a decrease of 2.95 days month-on-month but an increase of 1.35 days year-on-year. This reflects a seasonal slowdown in new order activities as downstream processing enterprises begin to halt operations for the Spring Festival. Although year-on-year order days have increased, the month-on-month decline dominates market sentiment. The recent "guarantee delivery" policies in the real estate sector are supportive, but the transmission of funds to actual glass purchases will take time. Additionally, the growth rate of automobile production and sales has also shown signs of slowing [5] Inventory Situation - As of February 6, 2026, the inventory of float glass enterprises was 53.064 million weight boxes, an increase of 500,000 weight boxes (0.95% rise) week-on-week, but a year-on-year decrease of 7.08 million weight boxes (11.77% drop). In the Shihe region, trader inventory was 6.72 million weight boxes, an increase of 320,000 weight boxes (5% rise) week-on-week and an increase of 2.22 million weight boxes (49.33% rise) year-on-year. The significant year-on-year decline in factory inventory indicates lower overall inventory pressure compared to last year, providing some price support. However, the increase in trader inventory suggests a bottleneck in the flow of goods from production to end-users, which may lead to selling pressure if downstream recovery and restocking do not meet expectations [8] Market Outlook - The current glass market is characterized by "weak supply and demand, and inventory transfer." The rigid supply, seasonal demand vacuum, and high social inventory collectively suggest that prices are unlikely to perform strongly before the holiday, likely remaining in a low-level fluctuation. Post-holiday market performance will hinge on two key factors: the pace of downstream resumption and new order situations, which will determine the speed of real demand activation, and the path of social inventory digestion, which will directly impact market sentiment and price volatility. Investors should closely monitor the progress of downstream resumption and changes in factory inventory in the first week after the Spring Festival [11]