10年期国债收益率跌至1.8%，持券过节稳了？

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a recovery, with the 10-year government bond yield dropping below 1.8% for the first time since November 2025, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards a more favorable outlook for bonds amid expectations of continued monetary easing [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of February 9, the 10-year government bond yield reached 1.793%, marking a significant decline of 10 basis points since January [1][2]. - The bond futures market saw an overall increase, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.14% to 112.730, and the 10-year main contract increasing by 0.06% to 108.490 [2]. - The yield on the "25附息国债16" bond fell by 0.2 basis points to 1.8%, while the yield on the "25超长特别国债06" bond rose by 0.2 basis points to 2.2275% [2]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The recent bond market recovery is attributed to weak fundamentals and a supportive liquidity environment, with increased volatility in equity and commodity markets providing a safe haven for investors [3]. - The manufacturing PMI in January dropped to 49.3%, raising expectations for additional policy measures [3]. - Major state-owned banks have been net buyers of 10-year government bonds, with a cumulative net purchase of 993 billion yuan as of February 6, indicating strong institutional support for the bond market [3][4]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Expectations - Analysts suggest that the market is currently betting on potential interest rate cuts post-Spring Festival, with the upcoming inflation data being a key focus [6][8]. - The 7-day reverse repo rate is seen as a critical factor influencing the downward trend of the 10-year government bond yield, with recent rates dropping to 1.4% [6][7]. - There is an expectation of policy rate cuts in the next 2-3 months as internal and external constraints on monetary easing have eased [7][8].