10年期国债收益率跌至1.8% 持券过节稳了？

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a recovery, with the 10-year government bond yield dropping below 1.8% for the first time since November 2025, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards bonds as a safer investment amid high volatility in other asset classes [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of February 9, the 10-year government bond yield reached a low of 1.793%, marking a cumulative decline of 10 basis points since January [1][2]. - The yield on the 10-year active bond "25附息国债16" fell to 1.8%, while the 30-year bond yield showed a slight increase, indicating a narrowing of the yield spread between different maturities [2]. - The bond futures market also saw gains, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.14% to 112.730 yuan [2]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The recovery in the bond market is attributed to weak fundamentals and a supportive liquidity environment, with expectations of monetary easing gaining traction [3][6]. - The manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.3% in January, reinforcing market expectations for additional policy measures [3]. - Major state-owned banks have been net buyers of 10-year government bonds, with a cumulative net purchase of 993 billion yuan, indicating strong institutional interest [3][4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the bond market will remain strong leading up to the Spring Festival, driven by expectations of continued monetary easing and a stable funding environment [5][6]. - Upcoming economic indicators, particularly inflation data, are expected to influence market dynamics, with concerns about supply and valuation pressures in the bond market [8].