基金实时估值全网下架后，投资者该如何科学评估基金价值？

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has issued a significant notice regarding the regulation of the fund industry, emphasizing the need for compliance and the cessation of misleading functions such as real-time valuation tools, which have been deemed to mislead investors [2][5]. Industry Rectification - The CSRC's notice clearly delineates compliance boundaries for fund sales, mandating the removal of functions like "real-time valuation," "buying list," and "actual trading list" from sales platforms and third-party networks [2][3]. - Major platforms, including leading sales and third-party tool platforms, have swiftly responded by taking down these functions, indicating a rapid and extensive industry-wide rectification [2][3]. Investor Reactions - The rectification has sparked significant reactions among millions of fund investors, with discussions on social media platforms about the implications of losing real-time valuation tools [4]. - Experienced investors express discomfort over losing a "window" to observe market sentiment, while many novice investors are confused about the difference between "valuation" and "net value" [4]. Regulatory Intent - Experts suggest that the regulatory crackdown aims to correct the distorted ecology of fund investment, which has shifted towards short-term speculation rather than long-term investment [5]. - Real-time valuation is criticized for its inherent information bias, as it is based on outdated quarterly reports and does not reflect the fund manager's dynamic adjustments [5][6]. Differences Between Valuation and Net Value - Real-time valuation is not the same as the official net value disclosed by fund companies; it is a simulated estimate based on outdated data, leading to potential discrepancies [6][7]. - Studies indicate that the average deviation between estimated and actual net values can reach 0.8%, with extreme cases exceeding 3%, posing significant investment risks [6]. Gray Market for Valuation Tools - Despite the removal of real-time valuation functions from mainstream platforms, a gray market for these tools has emerged on social media, reflecting investors' ongoing anxiety about information access [8][9]. - Platforms like Xiaohongshu have become venues for selling real-time valuation tools, with users seeking alternatives despite the risks involved [9][12]. Investor Psychology and Market Issues - The persistent demand for gray market tools highlights investors' desire to overcome information asymmetry and reflects a broader trend of seeking control over investments through real-time data [14][15]. - Many investors have developed a reliance on real-time data, which has become their primary metric for evaluating fund performance, leading to anxiety when such tools are removed [15]. Recommendations for Investors - The removal of real-time valuation tools is intended to guide investors towards more rational and compliant methods of evaluating funds [17]. - Investors are encouraged to adopt a long-term perspective, focusing on core indicators such as risk-adjusted returns and maximum drawdown, rather than short-term fluctuations [17][18].