Goldman issues a blunt warning to beat-up software stock investors

Group 1 - The software stock downturn of 2026 may be indicative of a larger trend, similar to the impact of the internet on the newspaper industry in the early 2000s [1][2] - Historical examples show that share price stability in industries facing disruption requires stable earnings outlooks, as seen with newspapers which experienced a 95% decline in share prices from 2002 to 2009 [2] - The decline in newspaper stocks ended when earnings estimates bottomed, and the uncertainty surrounding AI's impact on software companies suggests that near-term earnings will be critical indicators of business resilience [3] Group 2 - Major software companies like Salesforce, Workday, and SAP are perceived to have their terminal values threatened by advancements in AI [4] - The recent debut of AI developer Anthropic and its automation capabilities has contributed to a significant decline in shares of various software companies, with no clear positive catalysts emerging to attract investors [8] - Software stocks are underperforming the Nasdaq Composite by the largest margin this century, with notable declines including 27% for Oracle and Salesforce, and a 41% drop for Figma [9] Group 3 - The software sector typically outperforms the S&P once it finds a bottom, but the extent of the current downturn remains uncertain, with no immediate solutions to shift investor sentiment [10]