Options Corner: SPOT

Company Overview - Spotify has experienced a significant decline of approximately 33% over the past year, contrasting with the S&P and the XLC communication sector, which are up by roughly 12 to 14% [1][2]. Market Position - Within the music industry, Spotify is positioned at the lower end compared to competitors such as Tencent Music, Live Nation, Warner Music, and Sirius XM [2]. Technical Analysis - The stock is currently viewed as overvalued despite a 46% drop from its highs, indicating a bearish outlook in the short term [3]. - Recent low points for Spotify include 405, which was reached in the latest trading session, and previous lows of 475 and 500 during significant market events [4]. - A downward sloping channel has been observed over the past two quarters, with a recent break below this channel, leading to a steeper downward trend line [5]. Moving Averages and Indicators - Moving averages indicate a continued downward trend, with the 5-day weekly EMA around 445 [6]. - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at a low of 22.5%, suggesting potential further weakness in the stock [7]. Volume Profile - Volume analysis shows significant trading activity during the decline, with notable volume nodes between 407 to 427 and 500 to 520 [7]. Trading Strategy - A bearish trading strategy is suggested, focusing on a March 20th expiration with a potential range of 363 to 491 [8]. - A specific trade example includes a short call vertical at a 275 credit, with a break-even point around 470, indicating a max profit of 275 and a max loss of 725 [9][10].