Can Ero Copper Sustain Record Copper Output Growth Ahead?

Core Insights - Ero Copper Corp. (ERO) achieved record copper production of 19,706 tons in Q4 2025, marking an 18.3% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 53% increase year-over-year, driven by improved operations at Tucumã and Caraíba [1][8] Production Performance - Tucumã experienced a 22% sequential increase in production due to improved plant throughput and stabilized recovery rates, indicating a shift to consistent commercial-scale performance [2] - Caraíba's production was enhanced by stronger mining rates and the completion of a mill debottlenecking initiative, resulting in a 15% increase in throughput [2] Peer Comparison - Lundin Mining Corporation (LUNMF) reported Q4 2025 copper production of 87,032 tons, a slight decrease from 87,353 tons in Q3 2025, with a total production of 331,232 tons for 2025, down from 369,067 tons in 2024 [3] - Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO) produced 242,172 tons in Q4 2025, showing a marginal year-over-year increase, with a total of 956,270 tons for 2025, about 1.8% lower than the previous year [4][5] Valuation and Growth Estimates - ERO is trading at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 3.06X, below the industry average of 5.13X, and holds a Value Score of B [9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates ERO's earnings growth of 155.13% for 2025 and 104.4% for 2026, with EPS estimates trending higher over the past 90 days [11][12]