RYOEXBTC:底部测试或在 5 万关口

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market is entering a critical phase of adjustment and repricing after a significant sell-off, with Bitcoin struggling to maintain above $70,000, indicating that the market has not yet reached a true macro bottom [1][2] Market Sentiment - Investor appetite for risk assets is diminishing, leading to increased expectations for Bitcoin to retrace to psychological price levels of $60,000 or even $50,000 [1][2] - Current market fluctuations are seen more as a cleanup of leveraged positions rather than the beginning of a new bull market [1] Economic Indicators - The upcoming release of the U.S. January CPI data is viewed as a key indicator of inflation persistence, which could significantly impact digital asset volatility [3] - There is a high probability (82%) that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in March, influenced by the new leadership's potentially hawkish stance [3] On-Chain Data - Recent on-chain data shows an unusual increase in miner transfers to exchanges, with a single-day inflow of 24,000 BTC on February 5, marking a peak for 2024 [2][4] - This significant inflow typically indicates that miners are hedging risks or taking profits, adding additional selling pressure to the market [4] Market Dynamics - Bitcoin is undergoing a complex "bottom-seeking" process, with the DXY dollar index potentially mirroring the rotation logic of 2021, setting the stage for Bitcoin to reach a "ultimate peak" of $146,000 in the long term [4] - In the short term, the market must first navigate extreme pressure testing in the $50,000 range before any significant recovery can occur [4]