比特币衍生品释放谨慎信号 市场流动性及深度明显下降 多头信心仍显不足

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that despite Bitcoin's price rebound from around $60,000 to nearly $70,000, the derivatives market signals a defensive stance among traders, with no significant bullish bets emerging [1] - Data shows that the funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual contracts remains below zero, suggesting that market participants are preparing for downside risks and require compensation to hold long positions [1] - The open interest in Bitcoin perpetual contracts has not recovered from a decline since October last year, highlighting a lack of confidence behind the recent price rebound, with current open interest down approximately 51% from the peak in October [1] Group 2 - The options market also conveys cautious signals, with Bitcoin's implied volatility dropping from about 83% to around 60%, indicating a decrease in expectations for short-term volatility [2] - The positioning structure remains defensive, with a significant skew towards put options, reflecting strong demand for downside protection among investors [2] - Macro-level uncertainties are reinforcing cautious sentiment in the market, with participants remaining extremely cautious due to potential market-moving events, including political changes in Japan and fluctuations in the precious metals market [2]