Should You Buy, Sell or Hold IREN Stock Post Q2 Earnings?

Core Insights - IREN Limited's shares increased by 5.1% following the release of its second-quarter fiscal 2026 results, driven by significant growth in its AI Cloud Business, which saw a sequential increase of 136.9% to $17.3 million from $7.3 million in the previous quarter [1][9]. Business Transition and Market Opportunity - IREN is transitioning from a pure-play crypto-mining company to an AI Cloud Service Provider, positioning itself to benefit from the rapidly growing AI compute infrastructure market, which is projected to grow at a CAGR of 23.8% [2]. - The company aims to achieve $3.4 billion in annualized run-rate revenues (ARR) by the end of calendar 2026, with $2.3 billion of ARR already under contract, including a significant agreement with Microsoft [3]. Financial Backing and Growth Capacity - In the second quarter of fiscal 2026, IREN secured $3.6 billion in GPU financing and received $1.9 billion in customer prepayments from Microsoft, covering approximately 95% of GPU-related capital expenditures associated with the Microsoft contract [4]. - IREN has secured over 4.5 gigawatts (GW) of power, with only about 10% needed to reach its $3.4 billion ARR target, leaving substantial capacity for future growth [5]. - The company expanded its power capacity by securing a 1.6-gigawatt site in Oklahoma, enhancing its U.S. footprint and supporting long-term expansion plans [6]. Revenue Estimates and Growth Projections - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for IREN's fiscal 2026 revenues is $1.08 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 112.8%, while the estimate for fiscal 2027 revenues is $2.78 billion, indicating a year-over-year increase of 156.2% [7]. Competitive Landscape - IREN faces significant competition in the AI infrastructure space from established players like Applied Digital and TeraWulf, which may impact its market position [10]. - Recent developments from competitors include Applied Digital's construction of a large AI data center and TeraWulf's acquisition of sites to expand its power capacity [11][12]. Stock Performance and Valuation - IREN's shares have declined by 30.5% over the past three months, underperforming the industry average decline of 17.3% and lagging behind peers like Applied Digital and TeraWulf [13]. - The company's shares are currently considered overvalued, trading at a forward price/sales ratio of 5.6X compared to the industry average of 3.02X [17]. Conclusion - IREN's strategic shift towards AI cloud services is yielding positive early results, supported by strong contracts and funding. However, the high level of competition and premium valuation suggest a cautious approach to investment in the stock [20].