Will These 5 Drug Bigwigs Surpass Q4 Earnings Forecasts?

Core Insights - The fourth-quarter earnings season is ongoing, with major pharmaceutical companies set to announce their results, including AstraZeneca, Incyte, Gilead Sciences, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, and Moderna [1] Industry Overview - Several large pharmaceutical companies such as Johnson & Johnson, Lilly, AbbVie, Biogen, Merck, and Amgen reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter results, surpassing estimates for both earnings and revenues. In contrast, Novartis and Sanofi had mixed results, with earnings exceeding estimates but revenues falling short [2] - As of February 4, 40% of companies in the Medical sector, representing 73.9% of the sector's market capitalization, reported quarterly earnings. Among these, 87.5% exceeded earnings estimates, and 75% surpassed revenue estimates. Year-over-year, earnings increased by 3.3%, while revenues rose by 9.5%. Overall, fourth-quarter earnings for the Medical sector are expected to decline by 1.5%, while sales are projected to increase by 9.1% compared to the previous year [3] Company-Specific Insights AstraZeneca - AstraZeneca's performance has been mixed, with earnings beating estimates in two of the last four quarters, meeting once, and missing once, resulting in an average surprise of 3.81%. The consensus estimate for fourth-quarter sales is $15.78 billion, with earnings expected at $2.18 per share [5] - Key medicines, particularly cancer drugs and diabetes medicine, are expected to drive fourth-quarter sales, supported by strong demand trends [7] - AstraZeneca is scheduled to report its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on February 10 [8] Incyte - Incyte has a mixed history of earnings surprises, beating estimates in three of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 14.35%. The consensus estimate for fourth-quarter sales is $1.35 billion, with earnings expected at $1.94 per share [9] - Strong sales of Jakafi and expected growth in Opzelura sales are likely to contribute to revenue growth in the fourth quarter [11][12] - Incyte is also set to report its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 earnings on February 10 [12] Gilead Sciences - Gilead Sciences has a mixed earnings surprise history, beating estimates in three of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 7.80%. The consensus estimate for fourth-quarter sales is $7.57 billion, with earnings expected at $1.83 per share [13] - Increased sales from Biktarvy and Descovy, along with growth in the Liver Disease portfolio, are anticipated to drive top-line growth [14] - Gilead is scheduled to report its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on February 10 [15] Vertex Pharmaceuticals - Vertex has a mixed earnings surprise history, beating estimates in two of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 2.01%. The consensus estimate for fourth-quarter sales is $3.17 billion, with earnings expected at $5.07 per share [16] - Revenue growth is likely to be driven by higher sales of its cystic fibrosis medicine, Trikafta, and contributions from newer drugs [18] - Vertex is set to report its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on February 12 [19] Moderna - Moderna has a strong earnings surprise history, beating estimates in all of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 31.45%. The consensus estimate for fourth-quarter sales is $661.4 million, with expected earnings showing a loss of $2.60 per share [20] - Revenue is expected to be primarily driven by sales of COVID-19 vaccines, although demand has declined recently [22] - Moderna is scheduled to report its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 earnings on February 13 [23]