NRC's Q4 Earnings Down Y/Y on High Client Attrition, Stock Falls 27%

Core Insights - National Research Corporation (NRC) shares have declined 27.2% since the earnings report for Q4 2025, significantly underperforming the S&P 500 index's 1.1% decline during the same period [1] - The company reported adjusted earnings per share of 16 cents for Q4 2025, down from 29 cents in the prior-year period [1] Financial Performance - Total revenues for Q4 2025 were $35.2 million, reflecting a 5% decline compared to the prior-year quarter [2] - GAAP net income for Q4 was $1.8 million, a sharp decrease from $6.6 million a year earlier, while adjusted net income was $3.4 million, down from $6.7 million [2] - For the full year 2025, revenues declined 4% year-over-year to $137.4 million, attributed to elevated client attrition in H2 2024 [3] - Adjusted EPS for the full year fell to 93 cents from $1.05, and adjusted net income decreased 17% to $20.7 million [3] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 was $8.7 million, representing 25% of revenues [4] Cash Flow and Recurring Revenue - Cash flow from operations for Q4 increased 13% year-over-year to $7.2 million, accounting for 20% of revenue [5] - Full-year operating cash flow reached $26.5 million, down from $34.6 million in 2024, but still representing 19% of total revenue [5] - The company's recurring revenue remained high, with 99% of total revenue classified as recurring, indicating strong visibility into future earnings [5] Key Business Metrics - Total Recurring Contract Value (TRCV) increased 8% year-over-year to $144.1 million, marking the fifth consecutive quarter of sequential growth [6] - Management emphasized the importance of sales team realignment, product enhancements, and customer success initiatives in driving TRCV growth [6] Management Commentary - CEO Trent Green and CFO Shane Harrison acknowledged the challenges posed by elevated TRCV attrition in Q4 2024 but expressed optimism about momentum entering 2026 [7] - Green highlighted an 86% increase in new sales year-over-year and strong retention as positive outcomes of a refined go-to-market strategy [7] - Cost discipline was noted as a factor in preserving margins despite revenue pressure, allowing for continued investment in growth initiatives [7] Strategic Focus - The company emphasized a three-pronged customer value proposition: trust, expertise, and portfolio breadth, with a Net Promoter Score of 68 and 74% penetration among the top 100 U.S. health systems [8] - NRC is exploring strategic, accretive acquisitions and new growth avenues, including technology enhancements and partnerships through "Blue Water" opportunities [12] Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in resuming revenue growth in 2026, supported by the 8% TRCV expansion in Q4 [11] - The evolving go-to-market model was described as a "meaningful tailwind" for the upcoming year [11]