中金 • 联合研究 | 氢基能源系列二：燃料电池——阶段性承压与新动能蓄势

Group 1 - The promotion of fuel cell vehicles during the 14th Five-Year Plan period has not met expectations, with the industry facing challenges such as weak growth, poor profitability, and accounts receivable backlog [1][2] - In Q4 2025, a surge in fuel cell vehicle orders occurred, but sales momentum has been insufficient since 2024, primarily due to the impact of policy changes [2][4] - The average price of fuel cell systems has decreased by nearly 90% since 2018, creating significant challenges for profitability among manufacturers [7][10] Group 2 - The promotion of fuel cell vehicles is constrained by three main bottlenecks: cost disadvantages due to subsidy reductions, slow infrastructure development, and long accounts receivable cycles [2][11][15] - Despite short-term pressures, China's hydrogen energy strategy remains firm, with expectations for new supportive policies and the expansion of application scenarios, indicating potential for long-term growth [2][24] - The application of fuel cells is expanding beyond transportation to include power generation, energy storage, and rail transit, suggesting a second growth curve for the industry [29][30][33] Group 3 - The transition from nationwide purchase subsidies to a reward-based system for specific regions has stimulated growth in fuel cell vehicle production and sales from 2021 to 2023 [5][4] - The construction of hydrogen refueling stations has not kept pace with expectations, impacting the convenience of hydrogen refueling and limiting the operational radius of fuel cell vehicles [14][15] - New policies, such as highway fee exemptions for hydrogen vehicles, have been introduced in multiple provinces, potentially reducing operational costs and enhancing competitiveness against electric trucks [24][26]