Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-02-09 23:57Group 1 - Lumentum has secured several hundred million dollars in CPO-related orders, expecting CPO revenue of approximately $50 million in Q4 2026, with a significant surge anticipated in the first half of 2027 [2][3][14] - The CPO supply chain is recommended for attention, including components such as optical engines, FAU, laser ELS, MPO, Shuffle box, and polarization-maintaining fibers [2][13] - The optical fiber industry has shifted to a phase of "tight supply and rising prices," with a focus on companies with optical rod capacity and those with significant or specialty fiber production [5][16] Group 2 - North American CSPs are showing strong growth in capital expenditures, with a total of $127 billion for Q4 2025, representing a 60% year-over-year increase and a 12% quarter-over-quarter increase [6][16] - Amazon, Google, and Meta have optimistic capital expenditure guidance for 2026, with a combined expected spending of approximately $505 billion, a 71% year-over-year increase [6][18] - The AI demand is robust, with Amazon's Q4 2025 capital expenditure at $39.5 billion, a 42% year-over-year increase, and an expected $200 billion in 2026, primarily directed towards AI [17] Group 3 - The domestic AI market is experiencing a "red envelope war," with Alibaba's promotional event generating over 10 million orders in just 9 hours, indicating a significant demand for AI resources [10][19] - By December 2025, the user base for generative AI in China is projected to reach 602 million, with a penetration rate of 42.8%, suggesting substantial growth potential [10][19] - 2026 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for AI applications, driving further growth in computational power and model training [10][19]