黄金、白银，巨震！美联储发声，事关降息！

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in precious metals, particularly gold and silver, are influenced by rising market risk aversion due to political changes in the UK and weak employment data expectations in the US, alongside a significant probability of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in June [5][12]. Group 1: Precious Metals Market - On February 10, gold and silver experienced significant volatility, with spot gold dropping over 0.4% and briefly falling below $5000 per ounce, while silver saw a decline of over 2% [6][12]. - On February 9, both gold and silver generally closed higher, indicating recent upward trends prior to the current downturn [3][8]. Group 2: Stock Market Performance - On February 9, all three major US stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.04% at 50135.87 points, the S&P 500 rising 0.47% to 6964.82 points, and the Nasdaq increasing by 0.9% to 23238.67 points [3][8]. - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose by 0.12%, with individual stocks like Wanwu Xingsheng and Century Interconnect gaining over 6%, while stocks like New Oriental and Li Auto saw declines of over 3% [10]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Outlook - Market risk aversion is heightened due to expectations of weak US employment data and political instability in the UK, which has led to increased prices in international precious metal futures [5][12]. - Federal Reserve Governor Milan stated that current interest rates are appropriate and acknowledged some pressure signs in the job market, while the National Economic Council Director Hassett projected a decline in US job growth numbers in the coming months without indicating economic weakness [12]. - According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by March is 17.7%, with an 82.3% chance of maintaining current rates. By April, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut rises to 32.4%, and by June, it exceeds 50% [12].