Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-02-10 00:07Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a shift in the technology investment landscape, particularly regarding Microsoft's stock valuation compared to IBM, as both companies prepare for significant AI infrastructure spending by 2026 [1][5]. Group 1: Valuation and Market Dynamics - Microsoft's stock is currently cheaper than IBM's, with forward price-to-earnings ratios of 23.0 and 23.7, respectively, marking a valuation inversion not seen since July 2013 [4]. - Major tech companies, including Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon, are expected to collectively spend $650 billion on capital expenditures by 2026, a 60% increase from 2025 and $150 billion above initial average expectations [5][6]. Group 2: Financial Implications and Investor Sentiment - Increased spending by leading tech firms is anticipated to result in more physical infrastructure, higher expenses, reduced free cash flow, and increased debt issuance [5][6]. - Concerns are raised about whether these investments will yield high valuations as they did in the past when business models were less capital-intensive [6]. - Since the earnings report on January 28, Microsoft's stock has dropped nearly 14%, indicating investor dissatisfaction with Azure's revenue growth relative to capital expenditure levels [6]. Group 3: Future Projections and Competitive Landscape - Microsoft is projected to allocate $115 billion for capital expenditures in the 2026 calendar year, but there are doubts about whether IBM can maintain a higher valuation than Microsoft due to similar AI-related challenges [7]. - Among major cloud service providers, Microsoft is expected to be the only one with cash flow exceeding capital expenditures in the 2026 fiscal year [7]. - Analysts express uncertainty about whether Microsoft's current cash levels will be beneficial, suggesting that the company may need to significantly increase capital expenditures to keep pace with competitors like Alphabet and Amazon [7].