中信证券：看好白酒板块修复行情 建议逢低增配

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the sales of liquor are gradually increasing as the Spring Festival approaches, with expectations that the performance during the 2026 Spring Festival will be better than market expectations due to an additional day off compared to 2025 [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The liquor industry has been adjusting for several years and is currently at a fundamental bottom in a long cycle, with low market expectations and low inventory levels, suggesting that any marginal improvement could significantly boost investment sentiment in the sector [1] - The actual sales pace of liquor has started to accelerate in the 3rd to 4th week before the Spring Festival, benefiting from better-than-expected demand in the gift market [1] - The Spring Festival is a traditional peak consumption period for liquor, with expectations for demand from gatherings and celebrations to gradually release, supported by the additional day off in 2026 [1] Group 2: Financial Metrics - As of February 6, 2026, the price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for the liquor sector is approximately 19.5x, which is at the historical bottom range, reflecting significant long-term pessimism [1] - Major liquor companies have been steadily increasing shareholder returns since 2024, with leading firms generally maintaining a dividend payout ratio above 65%, enhancing investment safety margins [1] Group 3: Segment Performance - High-end liquor, particularly Moutai, has exceeded sales expectations during the Spring Festival, with the price of 53-degree 500ml Moutai rising to about 1660 yuan, an increase of approximately 100-150 yuan per bottle compared to December 2025 [2] - The performance of mid-range liquor remains mixed, with demand for business banquets still under pressure, but improvements in gift demand and general gatherings are expected to narrow the year-on-year decline in overall demand [2] - Regional liquor brands are facing pressure due to high base effects from last year, with expectations of challenges in sales during the Spring Festival and the first quarter of 2026 [2]