国际能源署最新报告预计：全球电力需求将保持强劲增长

Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts strong global electricity demand growth, with an average annual growth rate exceeding 3.5% from 2026 to 2030, driven by industrial, electric vehicle, air conditioning, and data center electricity consumption [1] - By 2030, renewable energy and nuclear power are expected to account for 50% of the global electricity mix, with emerging economies contributing nearly 80% of the new electricity demand [1][2] Group 1: Global Electricity Demand - Global electricity demand is projected to grow by 3% year-on-year in 2025, with the growth rate expected to be 50% higher than the average of the past decade over the next five years [1] - China will remain the main driver of global electricity demand growth, contributing nearly 50% of the increase, with an average annual growth rate of 4.9% over the next five years [1] - India and Southeast Asian countries are expected to significantly increase their share of electricity demand growth in emerging economies by 2030 due to rapid economic growth and rising air conditioning demand [1] Group 2: Renewable Energy and Nuclear Power - By 2030, about half of the global electricity will come from renewable energy and nuclear power, with renewable energy generation expected to grow at an annual rate of 8%, driven by record solar photovoltaic generation [2] - Global nuclear power generation is anticipated to reach a historical high in 2025, supported by increased nuclear capacity in countries like France, China, and India [2] Group 3: Coal and Natural Gas - Despite the decline of coal power, it will remain the largest source of electricity globally until 2030, with coal generation levels stabilizing in 2025 [3] - Natural gas generation is expected to grow at an annual rate of 2.6% by 2030, significantly higher than the 1.4% growth rate of the past five years, primarily driven by rising electricity demand in the U.S. and the Middle East's transition from oil to gas [3] Group 4: Electricity Infrastructure and Investment - The report emphasizes the need for rapid and efficient expansion of the electricity grid to integrate the changing generation structure and high-load demands from electric vehicles and data centers [4] - To meet the electricity demand by 2030, global grid investment must increase by at least 50% from the current $400 billion, alongside significant expansion of the supply chain [4] Group 5: Carbon Emissions and Pricing - Global electricity sector carbon emissions are expected to stabilize in 2025, with a further decline anticipated as low-carbon generation increases [5] - Electricity price disparities among regions continue to exist, with rising prices in the EU and U.S. due to high natural gas prices, while countries like Australia and India see price decreases [5] Group 6: Electricity Security - Recent large-scale power outages highlight the importance of electricity security, making it a priority for countries to enhance the resilience of their power systems [6] - The report calls for modern operational frameworks and updated regulations to address the evolving demands on electricity systems [6]