中金：燃料电池行业短期面临压力 远期具备较大发展潜力

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the promotion of fuel cell vehicles has not met expectations, with significant gaps remaining to achieve targets. The fuel cell industry is facing challenges such as weak growth, poor profitability, and accounts receivable backlog. However, the industry is expected to gradually overcome short-term difficulties and has substantial long-term growth potential due to a clear hydrogen energy strategy and anticipated new support policies [1][3]. Group 2 - In Q4 2025, a rush to install fuel cell vehicles is expected, but there remains a gap to the 2025 phased target. Since 2024, the sales momentum for fuel cell vehicles has been insufficient, influenced by the policy window period. The average price of fuel cell systems has decreased by nearly 90% since 2018, posing significant challenges to profitability, and the industry is still in a bottoming phase [1][2]. Group 3 - The promotion of fuel cell vehicles faces multiple constraints: first, the decline in subsidies has highlighted cost disadvantages, intensifying competition from electric vehicles; second, the construction speed of hydrogen refueling stations has not met expectations, making refueling convenience a challenge, and the high costs of building these stations have reduced investment motivation; third, the long cycle of subsidy fund disbursement has led to accounts receivable backlog, which may pressure company operations and limit the R&D and expansion capabilities of fuel cell manufacturers [2]. Group 4 - Despite short-term pressures, the country has positioned hydrogen energy as a key component of its future energy system, viewing it as an important means to achieve carbon neutrality in non-electric sectors. On the policy front, various local hydrogen industry plans are being advanced, with support policies such as toll fee reductions and the construction of "hydrogen corridors" being implemented. In terms of application, the use of fuel cells is expanding from transportation to multiple fields such as power generation, energy storage, and rail transit, indicating a potential second growth curve that supports the industry's medium to long-term development [3].