国际能源署最新报告预计: 全球电力需求将保持强劲增长

Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts strong global electricity demand growth, with an average annual growth rate exceeding 3.5% from 2026 to 2030, driven by industrial, electric vehicle, air conditioning, and data center electricity consumption [1][2] - By 2030, renewable energy and nuclear power are expected to account for 50% of the global electricity mix, with significant contributions from emerging economies, particularly China and India [1][2] Group 1: Global Electricity Demand - Global electricity demand is projected to grow by 3% year-on-year in 2025, with the growth rate expected to be 50% higher than the average of the past decade over the next five years [1] - Emerging economies will contribute nearly 80% of the new electricity demand by 2030, with China alone accounting for about 50% of this increase [1] - India's and Southeast Asia's share of electricity demand growth in emerging economies is expected to rise significantly due to economic growth and increasing air conditioning demand [1] Group 2: Renewable Energy and Nuclear Power - By 2030, approximately half of the global electricity will come from renewable energy and nuclear power, with renewable energy generation expected to grow at an annual rate of 8%, driven by solar photovoltaic power [2] - In 2025, global nuclear power generation is anticipated to reach a historical high, supported by increased nuclear capacity in countries like France, China, and India [2] Group 3: Coal and Natural Gas - Despite the decline of coal power, it will remain the largest source of electricity globally until 2030, with regional disparities in coal usage [3] - Global natural gas generation is expected to grow at an annual rate of 2.6% by 2030, driven by rising electricity demand in the U.S. and a shift from oil to gas in the Middle East [3] Group 4: Electricity Infrastructure and Investment - The report emphasizes the need for rapid and efficient expansion of the electricity grid to integrate changing generation structures and high-load demands from electric vehicles and data centers [4] - To meet the electricity demand by 2030, global grid investments need to increase by at least 50% from the current $400 billion, alongside enhancements in supply chain capabilities [4] Group 5: Carbon Emissions and Pricing - Global electricity sector carbon emissions are expected to stabilize in 2025, with a projected decline in carbon intensity by 14% compared to a decade ago, accelerating further as low-carbon generation increases [5] - Electricity price disparities among regions continue to create competitive pressures, with rising prices in the EU and U.S. due to high natural gas costs, while countries like Australia and India see price decreases [5] Group 6: Electricity Security - Recent large-scale power outages highlight the importance of electricity security, making it a priority for countries to enhance the resilience of their power systems [6] - The report suggests that modernizing operational frameworks and updating grid regulations are essential to meet evolving electricity demands and mitigate risks [6]