不锈钢：盘面维持窄幅震荡调整 供需缓慢修复

Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel market is experiencing a period of price stability and cautious procurement, with supply adjustments and inventory accumulation observed ahead of the holiday season [1][2][3]. Pricing - As of February 9, the price of 304 cold-rolled stainless steel in Wuxi is 14,150 yuan/ton, and in Foshan, it is 14,100 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The basis price is 585 yuan/ton, which has decreased by 65 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1]. Raw Materials - Nickel ore prices from the Philippines have increased, with a 1.3% FOB price rising to $45 per wet ton [1]. - The nickel ore premium has risen to approximately $28, influenced by a decrease in the volume of applications compared to the quota [1]. - High nickel pig iron prices are currently around 1,050 yuan/nickel (including tax) [1]. Supply - Domestic stainless steel production is projected to reach 3.426 million tons in January 2026, a month-on-month increase of 165,500 tons (5.08%) and a year-on-year increase of 248,300 tons [1]. - February's stainless steel crude steel output is expected to be 2.651 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 226,200 tons (12.49%) [1]. - Some steel mills are increasing production cuts and starting maintenance ahead of the holiday [1]. Inventory - The overall trading atmosphere is calm, with traders focusing on fulfilling pre-holiday orders, leading to a slight accumulation of social inventory [2]. - As of February 6, social inventory for the 300 series in Wuxi and Foshan is 458,600 tons, a week-on-week increase of 900 tons [2]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's stainless steel inventory is 53,523 tons, a week-on-week increase of 9,705 tons [2]. Market Dynamics - The stainless steel market is experiencing narrow fluctuations, with a lack of active trading and a cautious procurement approach from steel mills [3]. - The demand side is struggling to support high price increases, with traditional and emerging sectors showing a divergence in purchasing activity [3]. - The overall sentiment in the market is weak, with expectations for a slow recovery in supply and demand fundamentals [3].