澳元逼近0.71关口政策数据成焦点

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) has shown a strong performance against the US dollar (USD), driven by the Reserve Bank of Australia's hawkish stance, a weakening USD index, and improved risk sentiment [1] Group 1: Economic Factors - The Reserve Bank of Australia's strong position, as stated by Governor Michele Bullock, indicates a need to maintain tight monetary policy due to constrained economic capacity, with potential for further interest rate hikes [1] - The market's shift in expectations from rate cuts to maintaining or increasing rates has widened the interest rate differential between Australia and the US, supporting the AUD [1] - Weak US employment data and easing geopolitical tensions have diminished the USD's appeal as a safe haven, leading to a capital flow towards commodity currencies like the AUD [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The daily chart for AUD/USD shows a bullish arrangement, with the price stabilizing above the 20-day moving average, indicating strong upward momentum [2] - Key resistance levels are identified between 0.7094 and 0.7100, with a potential challenge to 0.7120 if these levels are breached; support is noted at 0.7010-0.7015 [2] - The upcoming US non-farm payroll report is highlighted as a critical variable that could influence short-term exchange rate movements [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - The short-term bullish trend for the AUD is expected to continue, but upward movement will depend on the interplay between Australian interest rate expectations and US economic data [2] - A weak non-farm payroll report could allow the AUD to surpass 0.71, while stronger-than-expected US data may trigger a pullback [2] - The current rise in the AUD reflects a deeper logic of global monetary policy divergence, suggesting that while investors may benefit from appreciation, they should remain cautious of high volatility and data-driven fluctuations [2]