ABS市场迈入存量竞争新阶段

Core Viewpoint - The ABS industry is entering a new development cycle in 2026, characterized by over ten million tons of total production capacity, despite a significant slowdown in new capacity additions. The market is shifting towards stock competition and structural optimization due to previous capacity accumulation and evolving demand [1][2]. Group 1: Capacity and Market Dynamics - In 2026, the pace of new ABS capacity additions is slowing, with only a few projects planned, and many large projects postponed to later years. This marks the end of a rapid expansion period with an average annual growth rate of about 16% since 2020 [2]. - The supply situation remains loose despite the decline in capacity growth, with excess supply expected to persist throughout the year. The core market issue has shifted from general oversupply to deeper structural adjustments and consolidation [2]. - Integrated leading companies like PetroChina and Zhejiang Petrochemical have established solid barriers in cost control through their full industry chain layout, maintaining a strong market position [2]. Group 2: Raw Material Costs and Profitability - The core costs of ABS are influenced by three main raw materials: styrene, acrylonitrile, and butadiene, with styrene having the most significant impact on profits. The styrene industry has seen rapid capacity expansion, exceeding 11%, leading to a historical high in inventory due to weak demand from downstream sectors [3]. - In 2026, the planned new capacity for styrene is significantly reduced, with only one unit expected to come online, indicating a shift from rapid expansion to stable development, which may help rebalance the market [3]. - The profitability of the ABS market remains under pressure, with head companies potentially having thin profit margins, while smaller companies face severe survival challenges due to lack of scale and cost control [4]. Group 3: Demand Trends and Market Outlook - ABS demand is closely linked to macroeconomic conditions and the performance of end industries, particularly in the home appliance, automotive, and electronics sectors, with home appliances accounting for over 50% of demand [5]. - The "old-for-new" policy in home appliances is expected to support ABS demand in 2025, but its impact is anticipated to weaken in 2026 due to reduced fiscal subsidies and increased eligibility requirements [6]. - The importance of the export market is growing, especially in the automotive sector, which is expected to continue strong growth in 2026. However, domestic ABS products still face structural shortcomings, relying heavily on imports for high-performance grades [6].