华源证券：关税不确定性制约全球央行降息路径 商品超级周期有望到来

Group 1 - The IMF has raised its short-term global economic growth forecast, but challenges remain for medium-term growth, which relies on credible, predictable, and sustainable policy actions [1][2] - The IMF projects global economic growth to decline from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, with developed economies growing at approximately 1.6% and emerging markets slightly above 4% [1] - Current economic resilience appears to stem from temporary factors rather than robust fundamentals, with signs of weakening economic conditions as these factors fade [1] Group 2 - Long-term policy uncertainty may suppress consumption and investment, while protectionist measures could disrupt supply chains and hinder productivity growth [2] - Breakthroughs in trade negotiations could lower tariffs and reduce uncertainty, potentially boosting medium-term growth [2] - The rapid growth of productivity driven by artificial intelligence may positively impact the overall economy [2] Group 3 - Tariff uncertainty is constraining the path for global central bank interest rate cuts, despite many economies being in a monetary easing cycle [3] - The front-loading effects of trade and investment due to tariffs have resulted in resilient economic activity and labor markets, delaying the pace of interest rate cuts [3] Group 4 - Inflation rates in the Eurozone, the US, and the UK are expected to remain around 3%, with tariffs and supply chain adjustments having a limited impact on inflation pressure so far [4] - The pricing effects of tariffs indicate broader implications for pricing and supply chains, which may eventually lead to cost increases being passed on to consumers [4] - The interplay between inflation and interest rate cuts is a significant variable, potentially benefiting commodity prices [4] Group 5 - Fiscal policies in developed economies are expected to maintain a neutral to slightly accommodative stance, with debt risks persisting under high financing rates [5] - Despite lower deficit forecasts for 2025 compared to record levels in 2020-2021, deficits remain significantly above pre-pandemic levels [5] - The debt-to-GDP ratio in the US is projected to rise from 122% in 2024 to 143% by 2030, while the Eurozone's ratio is expected to reach 92% by 2030 [5] Group 6 - The WTO forecasts that trade volume growth will slow from 2.8% in 2024 to 2.4% in 2025 and 0.5% in 2026 due to higher tariff rates and increased trade policy uncertainty [6] - The risks associated with trade restrictions and policy uncertainty are expected to affect more economies and sectors [6] - On a positive note, the continued growth of AI-related goods and services trade may provide a boost to global trade in the medium term [7]