长安期货张晨：供需宽松格局持续 尿素高位震荡

Market Overview - Since January 2026, urea futures have shown a "wide fluctuation" trend, with prices initially rising and then stabilizing due to various factors including lower-than-expected resumption of gas-based production, pre-holiday stocking demand, and fluctuations in international energy prices [5][27] - As of February 6, 2026, the closing price for UR2605 was 1776 RMB/ton, with significant price increases across major domestic production areas [5][27] Supply Side - Domestic urea production capacity utilization reached 89.14%, an increase of 5.86 percentage points since early January, with daily production averaging 209,900 tons, up by 13,900 tons [7][31] - The coal-based urea production capacity utilization was 96.21%, with a daily output of 177,500 tons, while the gas-based urea utilization was 63.54%, producing 32,300 tons daily [7][31] Demand Side - Agricultural demand is gradually starting, particularly for winter wheat, with increased purchasing activity in major production areas like Hebei and Guangdong, although overall purchasing remains cautious due to high urea prices [11][33] - Industrial demand for urea is also increasing, with compound fertilizer production capacity utilization rising to 41.79%, up 4.62 percentage points since early January [12][34] Export Dynamics - In 2025, domestic urea exports totaled 4.895 million tons, a 17-fold increase year-on-year, with a shift from strict export restrictions to a quota and guidance price system [14][36] - A new procurement tender from India's RCF company for 1.5 million tons of urea may further boost international prices and domestic market confidence, although domestic export quotas may limit actual export volumes [14][36] Inventory Levels - As of February 6, 2026, total inventory at production facilities was 918,500 tons, down by 103,700 tons since early January, indicating a continued destocking trend [16][38] - Port inventories increased slightly to 165,000 tons, primarily due to insufficient new export orders and some incoming imports, but overall levels remain reasonable [16][39] Cost and Profitability - Production costs for different urea manufacturing processes have shown significant improvement in profitability since early January, with coal-based production costs at 1,507 RMB/ton and profits at 263 RMB/ton [19][41] - Gas-based production remains unprofitable, with costs at 1,978 RMB/ton, but losses have narrowed due to rising urea prices [21][41] Summary - The urea market is characterized by a continued supply-demand balance, with rising production capacity and stable agricultural demand expected to support prices [23][45] - The overall inventory situation is manageable, and as agricultural demand ramps up in March, further improvements in market conditions are anticipated [23][45]