Core Insights - China's fiscal spending structure is shifting towards human investment, with a notable decline in infrastructure spending in 2024 [1] - The government is focusing on resolving existing hidden debts, leading to a reduction in new funds for infrastructure projects [5] - The decline in infrastructure investment marks the first annual negative growth since detailed statistics began in 2004 [5] Fiscal Spending Trends - In 2025, key infrastructure-related expenditures such as agricultural, urban community, and transportation spending are projected to decrease by 13.2%, 5%, and 0.7% respectively, resulting in an overall decline of approximately 7.8% compared to 2024 [1] - The total fixed asset investment in 2025 is estimated at 48.5 trillion yuan, a decrease of 3.8% year-on-year, with infrastructure investment (excluding certain utilities) down by 2.2% [5] Debt and Investment Dynamics - The new special bond limit for 2025 is set at 4.4 trillion yuan, with only 2.5 trillion yuan allocated for infrastructure, a reduction of over 400 billion yuan from 2024 [5] - The focus on debt resolution and the decline in land transfer income are contributing to a shortage of funds for infrastructure projects [6] Future Outlook - For 2026, infrastructure investment is expected to rebound, with a projected growth rate of 8% due to the initiation of major projects and increased central budget investments [9] - Analysts predict a "bottoming out and structural reshaping" of infrastructure investment, with growth rates potentially returning to a range of 3% to 4.5% [10] - Central government support for infrastructure investment is anticipated to play a crucial role in stabilizing the economy in 2026, with some institutions forecasting a growth rate of 4.5% [11]
中国财政资金支出结构悄然生变：更多资金投资于人 基建支出下滑明显
Di Yi Cai Jing·2026-02-10 05:57