PayPal Struggles to Keep Its Spot in Digital Checkout ‘Friend Zone’

Core Insights - PayPal is experiencing a slowdown in its branded checkout business, facing stiff competition from major players like Apple Pay and Google Pay, as well as e-commerce platforms and buy-now-pay-later providers [1][2] Financial Performance - The latest earnings report indicates a deceleration in growth for PayPal's branded checkout, with growth dropping to 1% in Q4 from 6% a year prior [2] - PayPal's revenue for the quarter was $8.68 billion, falling short of the $8.79 billion expected by analysts [2] - The company has provided weak guidance, projecting a mid-single-digit percentage decline in earnings per share for 2026, contrasting with Wall Street's expectation of an 8% increase [2] Market Challenges - Factors contributing to the slowdown include weakness in US retail, international issues, and challenging comparisons to previous results [3] - Analysts are expressing concerns about PayPal's competitive position, with former executives noting a loss of product edge and competitive ability [4] Executive Changes - PayPal is undergoing a leadership change, with Enrique Lores set to replace Alex Chriss as CEO on March 1, 2024 [3] - The interim CEO, Jamie Miller, acknowledged that execution in branded checkout has not met expectations [4] Analyst Reactions - HSBC downgraded PayPal's stock from buy to hold, reflecting diminished confidence in the company's ability to improve its branded checkout business [6] - TD Cowen analysts reduced their price target for PayPal's stock from $65 to $48, citing ongoing structural concerns in the core branded online checkout business [6]