国信证券:首次覆盖力量发展(01277)给予“优于大市”评级 成长可期的高股息优质民营煤企
智通财经网·2026-02-10 07:42

Core Viewpoint - Guosen Securities projects that Strength Development (01277) will achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.31 billion, 1.70 billion, and 2.02 billion for the years 2025-2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 10.6, 8.2, and 6.9, respectively. The reasonable valuation range for the company is estimated to be between RMB 1.8 and 2.0, equivalent to HKD 2.03 to 2.26, indicating a premium of 15%-28% compared to the closing price on February 6 [1] Group 1 - The company is a high-quality private comprehensive coal enterprise, listed in Hong Kong since March 2012, with the controlling shareholder Zhang Liang holding 62.96% of the shares as of June 30, 2025. The company is transitioning from a single thermal coal producer to a full coal variety producer, with coal business revenue and gross profit expected to account for approximately 95% and 102% in 2024, respectively [2] - The Dafenpu coal mine, the company's only main mine since its production began in 2012, has an annual capacity of 6.5 million tons and is expected to have a resource volume of approximately 360 million tons and reserves of about 160 million tons by the end of 2024. The mine produces high-quality, low-sulfur, and high-ash melting point environmental coal, which commands a higher price and has a low extraction cost due to its high safety and efficiency [3] Group 2 - The company is expanding its coal business in terms of both product variety and regional reach. It has two coal mines under construction: Yong'an Coal Mine, with an annual output of 1.2 million tons and expected to reach full production by 2026, and Wei Yi Coal Mine, with an annual output of 900,000 tons, expected to reach full production in the first half of 2027. Additionally, the company announced an investment to acquire 51% of South Africa's MC Mining to develop the Macado open-pit coal mine, which is expected to start production by the end of 2025 [4] - The company's wholly-owned subsidiary, Metal Mining, signed an agreement for a large-scale ilmenite mining project in Sierra Leone, with an expected annual output of 280,000 tons in the first phase and an additional 200,000 tons in the second phase. The project is anticipated to contribute approximately RMB 330 million in gross profit from the first phase and an additional RMB 230 million from the second phase [5] Group 3 - The company has shown steady operational improvement since its listing, with the debt-to-asset ratio decreasing from 68% in 2013 to a low of 24% in 2021. Since 2017, the company has implemented regular dividends, with a total dividend rate of 56.6% expected in 2024, including multiple special dividends. For 2025, the company has declared a total dividend of HKD 0.085 per share, corresponding to a dividend yield of 4.8% based on the closing price on February 6 [6]