债市日报：2月10日

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a period of consolidation, with the 10-year government bond yield breaking below its recent trading range, indicating potential resistance at the 1.80% level, which may act as a support if maintained by the central bank [1][7]. Market Performance - The closing performance of government bond futures showed mixed results, with the 30-year and 10-year contracts slightly up, while the 5-year and 2-year contracts remained unchanged [2]. - The interbank market saw a continuation of a warm trend in major interest rate bonds, with notable declines in yields for various government bonds [2]. Overseas Market Trends - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields mostly fell, with the 10-year yield at 4.202%, while the 30-year yield increased slightly [3]. - Asian markets saw a decline in Japanese bond yields, while European markets also reported decreases in yields for various government bonds [3]. Primary Market Activity - The Ministry of Finance reported weighted average yields for newly issued government bonds, with the 7-year bond at 1.6130% and a strong bid-to-cover ratio across different maturities [4]. - The China Development Bank's financial bonds also showed competitive yields and bid-to-cover ratios, indicating healthy demand [4]. Liquidity Conditions - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation, injecting 205.9 billion yuan into the market, with a fixed interest rate of 1.40% [5]. - Short-term Shibor rates increased across various maturities, indicating tightening liquidity conditions [5]. Institutional Insights - Analysts suggest that the 10-year bond yield's downward space is limited below 1.80%, with significant buying pressure from funds and brokerages [6][7]. - The current market sentiment is relatively subdued, with no strong catalysts to push long-term rates beyond their current range, especially ahead of the upcoming holiday [7].