瑞穗展望日本“后大选时代”：短期“高市交易”主导 中期关注消费税减免

Core Viewpoint - The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) of Japan achieved a historic victory in the House of Representatives election, securing 316 out of 465 seats, allowing them to hold a two-thirds majority and reintroduce previously rejected bills [1][2] Short-term Market Dynamics - The market may initially react to the overwhelming victory of the LDP, with expectations that Prime Minister Sanna Takashi will consolidate her party's support and promote a responsible fiscal policy, potentially leading to a rise in the stock market and a steepening of the Japanese government bond yield curve [4] - The bond market's reaction may be complex, as many participants believe that the LDP's victory could reduce the likelihood of aggressive fiscal expansion policies [4][5] Medium-term Market Dynamics - After the market digests the election results, attention will shift to the feasibility of the proposed consumption tax reduction policy, which is contingent on the government's fiscal discipline [7][8] - The government aims to implement a consumption tax reduction by the fiscal year 2026 without relying on special deficit bonds, but there is currently no clear plan to cover the estimated annual tax revenue shortfall of approximately 5 trillion yen [7][8] Potential Market Reactions to Tax Policy Decisions 1. If the government finds a stable funding source to cover the tax revenue shortfall, concerns about fiscal discipline may ease, positively impacting the bond and foreign exchange markets [9] 2. If the government adheres to its commitment not to issue special deficit bonds and either postpones the tax reduction or implements a limited reduction, this may not significantly affect Japan's fiscal situation but could lead to a decline in the government's approval ratings [10] 3. Conversely, if the government decides to implement a large-scale tax reduction without funding support, it could be viewed as fiscal irresponsibility, potentially leading to a significant sell-off in long-term bonds, the stock market, and the yen [10]