Why ConocoPhillips Rallied Double-Digits in January

Group 1: Core Insights - ConocoPhillips shares increased by 11.3% in January, driven by rising oil prices due to geopolitical events in Venezuela and Iran [1] - Oil prices rose from approximately $57 to $65 in January, influenced by the U.S. ousting of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro [2][6] - The potential regime change in Venezuela raises the possibility of unlocking unexploited oil reserves, despite current low production levels [3][4] Group 2: Company Performance - ConocoPhillips reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.02, which missed analyst estimates by $0.08, but the stock price remained stable due to higher current oil prices [8] - The company is owed $10 billion by Venezuela, a significant amount representing 7.4% of its current market cap, which could be recovered if the political situation improves [5][9] - CEO Ryan Lance indicated that the company would prioritize recovering the owed amount before considering reentering the Venezuelan market [9] Group 3: Market Context - Political instability in Venezuela and Iran has contributed to an upward trend in oil prices, with Iran being the ninth-largest oil producer, accounting for about 4% of global supply [6][10] - The geopolitical turmoil has created a mixed signal for oil prices, as disruptions could affect supply while potential regime changes may lead to increased production [3][4]