东方金诚：2026年货币化安置和保障房收储政策有望持续扩容

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the key economic themes for 2026, emphasizing the importance of domestic demand and the stabilization of the real estate market as crucial for economic recovery and growth [2]. Group 1: Domestic Demand and Real Estate Market - The central economic task for 2026 is to "insist on domestic demand as the main driver and build a strong domestic market," highlighting the critical role of expanding domestic demand in stabilizing the economy [2]. - The real estate market is expected to see continued marginal easing of policies in 2026, with a shift from short-term support to the establishment of long-term mechanisms [2]. - The core of the demand-side policy for 2026 will focus on guiding actual mortgage loan interest rates downward, especially as various purchasing restrictions have been largely lifted [2][4]. Group 2: Mortgage Rates and Economic Indicators - Since 2022, mortgage rates have been cumulatively reduced by approximately 250 basis points, yet the real estate market continues to decline, indicating a lack of sensitivity to these rate cuts [3]. - The GDP deflator index has shown negative year-on-year growth for 11 consecutive quarters as of the end of 2025, leading to an increase in the real mortgage rate from 1.2% at the end of 2021 to 4.2% in Q3 2025, near historical highs [3]. - To stabilize the real estate market, it is essential to lower actual mortgage rates through measures such as targeted interest rate cuts and fiscal subsidies [4]. Group 3: Supply-Side Policies and Land Market - The core policy for 2026 will focus on controlling new supply and reducing existing inventory to achieve a balance in the real estate market [5]. - The challenge lies in balancing the control of land supply with the declining land transfer revenue for local governments, particularly in lower-tier cities that rely heavily on land finance [5]. - Effective utilization of idle land is crucial, especially in lower-tier cities facing downward pressure in the real estate market, where the focus should be on matching idle land with effective demand [5]. Group 4: Inventory Reduction and Affordable Housing - The policies for inventory reduction in 2026 are expected to expand, particularly in terms of monetary compensation and the collection of affordable housing [6]. - Current challenges in affordable housing include high entry barriers for migrant workers and mismatches between housing supply and demand [6]. - Future adjustments should focus on breaking down barriers to access, optimizing housing layouts, and improving pricing and management mechanisms to better serve the needs of migrant workers [6].