小心！美国政府本周或再陷“部分停摆”

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing political disputes in Washington are pushing the U.S. government towards another potential shutdown, primarily focused on immigration enforcement reforms [1][6]. Group 1: Government Shutdown Potential - The likelihood of a government shutdown is increasing due to unresolved disagreements between Democrats and Republicans regarding immigration enforcement reforms initiated during the Trump administration [1][6]. - A temporary funding plan that provided only two weeks of funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is set to expire, leading to a funding gap starting Saturday [1][6]. - Predictions from Kalshi indicate a 65% chance of a shutdown, while Polymarket estimates it at 74%, with Congress unlikely to reach an agreement before the upcoming holiday recess [3][8]. Group 2: Impact on Departments - The Department of Homeland Security will be the only department affected by the potential shutdown, with key agencies like the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) facing funding interruptions [3][4]. - TSA agents may be required to work without pay, leading to potential absenteeism and delays at airport security checkpoints [3][8]. - Other critical departments under DHS, such as the Coast Guard and FEMA, will also lack funding, with many essential personnel required to work without pay [4][9]. Group 3: Legislative Responses - Senator John Fetterman highlighted that Democrats proposed around ten basic plans, which were quickly dismissed by Republicans as unrealistic [2][7]. - The ongoing negotiations have not yielded significant breakthroughs, indicating a challenging path ahead for bipartisan agreement on funding [1][6]. Group 4: Historical Context - The U.S. government previously experienced a 43-day shutdown last fall and a brief four-day shutdown recently, indicating a pattern of recurring funding disputes [1][6]. - The current funding battle is centered around the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Customs and Border Protection (CBP), which are expected to remain unaffected due to prior funding allocations from the previous year's legislation [4][9].