Euro zone inflation to take hit from tariffs but rate cuts could offset, ECB economists find

Group 1 - U.S. tariffs are negatively impacting euro zone growth and inflation, with the most affected sectors being sensitive to interest rates, suggesting that lower borrowing costs could mitigate price pressures [1][3] - A study by ECB economists indicates that the decline in demand due to tariffs outweighs any inflationary supply effects, resulting in a price drag, with consumer price levels potentially being 0.1% lower 1.5 years after a 1% drop in euro zone exports to the U.S. [2] - Euro zone exports to the U.S. have decreased by approximately 6.5% in the latest three months compared to the same period last year, coinciding with a drop in euro zone inflation to 1.7%, below the ECB's 2% target [3] Group 2 - The sectors most affected by tariffs, such as machinery, autos, and chemicals, are also those that respond strongly to interest rate changes, indicating that output may decline due to tariffs but could increase significantly with lower borrowing costs [4] - This pattern of sensitivity to interest rates holds for about 60% of the sectors studied, which represent roughly 50% of total average euro zone industrial output and total goods exports to the U.S. [5]