银河期货：降息预期、央行购金与美股波动共振 黄金反弹格局能否延续？

Macro News - The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points by March is 17.7%, while the probability of maintaining rates is 82.3% [1] - By April, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut rises to 32.4%, with a 63.5% chance of rates remaining unchanged, and a 4% chance of a 50 basis point cut [1] - By June, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut reaches 50.4% [1] - The White House's Hassett predicts a decline in employment, stating that AI will boost productivity and reduce labor demand [1] Institutional Views - Recent market sentiment has improved, with a V-shaped rebound in U.S. stocks and a weakening dollar, leading to a recovery in gold and silver prices from previous pessimism [1] - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves, and U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen indicated that the recent drop in gold prices was primarily driven by speculative selling and market rumors about domestic commercial banks potentially reducing their exposure to U.S. Treasuries [1] - These factors have collectively strengthened market confidence in precious metals like gold [1] - The recent price fluctuations are attributed to emotional and risk releases following rapid price increases, while the macroeconomic environment supporting gold and silver's long-term trends remains favorable [1] - This week will see the release of important data, including U.S. retail sales, non-farm payrolls, and CPI, but with the upcoming Chinese New Year, a cautious approach of light positions or staying out of the market is advised [1]