日元弱势或延续至2027年？经济学家：日经济陷入“贬值”与“通胀”互相喂养的怪圈

Group 1 - The core concern driving up bond yields is the significant uncertainty stemming from new fiscal policies in Japan, referred to as the "bond vigilantes" in action [1] - The ruling Liberal Democratic Party's supermajority in the House of Representatives has reignited fears of "re-inflation" risks in Japan [1] - Oxford Economics predicts that the weak yen will persist until 2027, with an exchange rate range of 150-160 yen per USD [1] Group 2 - The proposed reduction of the consumption tax on food from 8% to zero over two years is expected to decrease tax revenue by 5 trillion yen annually, raising concerns about further deterioration of fiscal conditions [4] - The basic fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP is projected to remain at 2%-3% for the fiscal years 2026 and 2027, continuing until 2028 [4] - Japan is currently in a "vicious cycle" of depreciation and inflation, exacerbated by the central bank's lack of a strong anti-inflation stance [4] Group 3 - Inflation is a critical variable, and the Bank of Japan's failure to signal a strong commitment to combat inflation has led to sustained high inflation expectations [5] - The rise in interest rates is attributed to uncontrolled inflation and soaring sovereign risk, creating a cycle of fiscal expansion, inflation expectations, and currency depreciation [5] - Three potential solutions to break this cycle include raising interest rates above inflation, a sudden drop in inflation, or a shift towards fiscal tightening [5] Group 4 - The Bank of Japan is unlikely to preemptively raise interest rates significantly to defend the yen, as this could destabilize risk assets supported by yen financing arbitrage [6] - The responsibility for exchange rate policy lies with the government, not the central bank, which is cautious about raising rates [7] - The central bank's focus is more on wage growth than on the yen's exchange rate, delaying any potential rate hikes until it can assess the impact of wage negotiations [7] Group 5 - There is a trend towards reducing U.S. Treasury holdings as part of a broader strategy to manage the central bank's balance sheet [8] - Historical interventions by Japan in the currency market have shown that such actions can only temporarily alleviate volatility without altering the underlying trend [8]