看空情绪依然浓厚 比特币、以太坊疲软态势不改

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin and Ethereum, is experiencing significant downward pressure due to bearish sentiment, with Bitcoin recently losing all gains since the end of 2024 following the U.S. presidential election [1][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - Bitcoin has dropped over 1% to $69,160, with a daily low of $68,666, while Ethereum has fallen over 4% to $2,018, hitting a low of $1,997 [1]. - Bitcoin is undergoing its longest monthly decline since 2018, despite expectations of a favorable regulatory environment under the new U.S. government [1][6]. - Ethereum has seen a larger decline than Bitcoin since a significant drop last October, remaining in a bearish structure after breaking below the $2,800 to $3,000 range [4]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Trading Behavior - The derivatives market for Bitcoin is showing bearish signals, with perpetual contract funding rates remaining below zero, indicating traders are positioning for further price declines [4]. - Open interest in Bitcoin perpetual contracts has decreased by approximately 51% from its peak in October, reflecting a lack of confidence in the recent price rebound [5]. - The implied volatility for Bitcoin has dropped from around 83% to approximately 60%, suggesting reduced expectations for short-term price fluctuations [5]. Group 3: Fund Flows and Investor Behavior - Significant capital outflows have been observed from both Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, with $7.9 billion withdrawn from Bitcoin ETFs and $3.2 billion from Ethereum ETFs since last October [6]. - Analysts are warning that Bitcoin may have entered a bear market, with some predicting a "death spiral" scenario that could lead to widespread liquidation in the crypto ecosystem [6][7]. - Despite the prevailing pessimism, some analysts maintain a bullish outlook, predicting Bitcoin could reach $150,000 by year-end, viewing current price movements as a confidence crisis rather than a fundamental issue [7].