Waste Management Stock: Analyst Estimates & Ratings

Core Insights - Waste Management, Inc. operates one of North America's largest environmental services platforms with a market cap of $91.4 billion, focusing on waste collection, recycling, disposal, and energy conversion from landfill gas [1] Stock Performance - Over the past 52 weeks, WM stock gained 2.5%, underperforming the S&P 500 Index's 15.6% gain, but year-to-date, WM stock rose 4.9%, outperforming the broader market's 1.7% increase [2] - The State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLI) has increased by 26.5% over the past year and 12% year-to-date, highlighting the sector's strong performance compared to WM [3] Q4 2025 Earnings Results - In Q4 2025, Waste Management reported revenue of $6.31 billion, which was below the expected $6.39 billion, despite a year-over-year increase of 7.1%, leading to a nearly 3.7% decline in shares [5] - Adjusted EPS was reported at $1.93, slightly below the consensus estimate of $1.95, but showed a year-over-year improvement of 13.5 [6] Margin and EBITDA Performance - Operating adjusted EBITDA in the Legacy Business rose by 10.1% in 2025, with margins expanding by 150 basis points to 31.5% [6] - Healthcare Solutions improved adjusted EBITDA margins by 180 basis points to 16.9% [6] Management Outlook - For 2026, management projects operating EBITDA between $8.15 billion and $8.25 billion, with free cash flow expected to be between $3.7 billion and $3.8 billion, reflecting the strength of Waste Management's solid waste network and investments in various projects [7] - Analysts anticipate diluted EPS of $8.14 for fiscal year 2026, indicating an 8.5% year-over-year growth, with Waste Management having beaten EPS expectations in two of the past four quarters [8]