日元弱势或延续至2027年？经济学家：经济陷入“贬值”与“通胀”互相喂养的怪圈

Group 1 - The Japanese ruling party's acquisition of a "super majority" in the House of Representatives has reignited concerns about the risk of "re-inflation" in Japan [1] - Oxford Economics predicts that the weak yen will persist until 2027, with an exchange rate range of 150-160 yen per dollar [1] - The yield on Japan's 30-year government bonds rose significantly to 3.50%, an increase of 1.21 percentage points compared to the same period last year [1] Group 2 - Global investors are worried about the potential deterioration of Japan's fiscal situation due to the ruling party's commitment to explore reducing the food consumption tax from 8% to zero for two years, which is expected to reduce tax revenue by 5 trillion yen annually [4] - Despite the proposed tax cuts, Oxford Economics maintains its fiscal forecasts for FY2026 and FY2027, as the measures require at least two years of deliberation and may ultimately be shelved [4] Group 3 - The basic fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP is expected to be between 2%-3% for FY2026 and FY2027, continuing until FY2028, with a gradual decline expected thereafter [5] - Japan is currently in a "vicious cycle" of currency depreciation and inflation, exacerbated by the central bank's lack of a strong anti-inflation stance, leading to an expanded risk premium [5][6] - The central bank's failure to signal a commitment to combat inflation has maintained high inflation expectations, further pushing up inflation [5] Group 4 - To break the current deadlock, three potential paths are suggested: the central bank could raise interest rates above inflation, inflation could suddenly decrease, or the government could shift to a tightening fiscal stance [6] - The likelihood of the latter two options is considered low, making the first option the most viable for restoring monetary credibility [6][7] Group 5 - The Bank of Japan is cautious about raising interest rates too soon, as it could destabilize risk assets supported by yen financing arbitrage [7] - The central bank has historically avoided political risks, leaving currency policy to the government, which may delay significant rate hikes until July [7][8] Group 6 - The potential for the Bank of Japan to intervene in the currency market is limited, as past interventions have only temporarily alleviated currency volatility without changing the underlying trend [9] - The central bank's focus is more on wage growth than on the yen's exchange rate, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy adjustments [8][9]