张尧浠:数据预期打压美元偏弱 金价保持低多看涨为主

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices experienced a rebound and closed higher on February 9, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions and expectations for significant data releases this week, with the dollar index declining, supporting gold prices above the mid-range and breaking through the 10-day moving average resistance [1][11]. Market Performance - Gold opened at $4987.98 per ounce, dipped to a low of $4964.04, and then rebounded, reaching a high of $5086.29 before closing at $5058.07, marking a daily fluctuation of $122.25 and a gain of $70.09, or 1.41% [1][11]. Short-term Outlook - On February 10, gold prices briefly strengthened before falling back, influenced by U.S. President Trump's comments on bilateral negotiations with Canada and his stance on Israel, which reduced geopolitical risk demand. The dollar strengthened, putting downward pressure on gold prices [3][13]. - Key data to watch includes U.S. retail sales and business inventories, with expectations that these will support gold prices, maintaining a strategy of buying on dips [3][14]. Fundamental Analysis - The bullish trend for gold is expected to strengthen, with recent adjustments viewed as a rapid repricing process rather than a trend reversal. The market is experiencing increased volatility as funds switch between risk and safe-haven assets, indicating a strong bull market outlook [5][16]. - Recent data shows job vacancies have dropped to 6.54 million, and initial jobless claims have risen to 231,000, suggesting a cooling labor market, which may lead to lower inflation and increased bets on the Federal Reserve cutting rates this year [5][16]. Technical Analysis - On a monthly basis, gold prices rebounded after touching support from an upward trend line, indicating that the bearish sentiment from January has dissipated, and new bullish space remains valid. Key support is noted at $4300, with expectations for new highs if prices remain above this level [6][17]. - Weekly analysis shows that gold prices have rebounded from recent lows, suggesting that previous bearish patterns have been exhausted, and the overall trend remains upward, with support from moving averages [8][19]. Trading Strategy - The strategy remains focused on buying on dips, with specific support levels identified at $4950 or $4860, and resistance levels at $5110 or $5190 for gold [10][20].