贺博生:黄金晚间非农数据前后如何布局 原油最新多空操作建议

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The core viewpoint indicates that spot gold prices have declined, trading around $5035 per ounce, with a daily drop of approximately 0.4%, ending a two-day upward trend [1][5][6] - Political uncertainty has been alleviated following Japan's snap election results, and easing tensions in the Middle East have contributed to a more optimistic market sentiment, applying downward pressure on gold [1][5] - Investors anticipate that the Federal Reserve will implement at least two rate cuts of 25 basis points each by 2026, which, along with concerns about the Fed's independence, has weakened the dollar, providing support for gold [1][6] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - Gold opened high and fluctuated, reaching a peak of $5086, closing with a bullish candle above the 10-day moving average, driven by three main factors: continuation of last Friday's bullish momentum, persistent safe-haven buying, and a decline in the dollar [2][7] - Despite the recent bullish trend, caution is advised as the upward movement has shown signs of weakness, indicating that the current strength may be a rebound from previous overselling rather than a trend reversal [2][7] - Short-term trading strategies suggest focusing on buying on dips, with resistance levels identified at $5090-$5140 and support levels at $4980-$4930 [2][7] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - WTI crude oil prices are maintaining high levels around $64 amid a backdrop of supply easing, with market sentiment still influenced by geopolitical factors [3][8] - The recent de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East has reduced some risk premiums, as the U.S. and Iran have expressed willingness to continue negotiations regarding nuclear issues [3][8] - However, the rise in oil prices is not due to fundamental improvements in supply and demand but rather emotional support from ongoing geopolitical risks, with the market facing mid-term pressure due to accumulating global inventories [3][8] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - The daily chart indicates that oil prices have ended a series of bullish closes, with a significant bearish candle forming, yet the overall trend remains bullish based on the moving average system [4][9] - The MACD indicator shows that bullish momentum is still dominant, suggesting an upward trajectory for oil prices in the medium term [4][9] - Short-term strategies recommend buying on dips, with resistance levels at $65.5-$66.5 and support levels at $63.0-$62.0 [4][9]