OEXN:避险情绪回归助金银强势反攻

Group 1: Precious Metals Market Overview - The sentiment in the precious metals market has significantly improved, with strong upward trends in gold and silver prices observed during the trading session on February 10 [1][3] - Despite the absence of acute geopolitical tensions, several international issues remain in a state of simmering uncertainty, which could lead to a resurgence of safe-haven investments in precious metals [1][3] - The weak performance of the US dollar index and the steady rise in oil prices have provided upward support for both gold and silver from both cost and pricing perspectives [1][3] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Positioning - Recent volatility in the gold market has been interpreted by some officials as a correction following a typical "speculative eruption" [1][3] - The halt in gold and silver prices in late January was primarily attributed to excessive speculation, macroeconomic turmoil, and deep concerns regarding the independence of Federal Reserve policies [1][3] - According to the latest CFTC Fact Sheet, as of the week ending February 3, money fund managers significantly reduced their bullish bets on gold futures, with net long positions decreasing by 23% to 93,438 contracts, marking the lowest level in 15 weeks [4] Group 3: Upcoming Economic Indicators - The macroeconomic agenda for the week is notably crowded, with the January non-farm payroll report and Consumer Price Index (CPI) set to be released, following delays due to previous government shutdowns [2][4] - Economists generally expect an increase of only 69,000 jobs in January, with the unemployment rate likely remaining at 4.4%, close to a four-year high [2][4] - Core CPI is anticipated to slow to the lowest year-on-year growth rate since early 2021, which will provide clear guidance for the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy path [2][4] Group 4: Technical Analysis - Both gold and silver are currently at critical turning points in technical analysis [5] - For April gold futures, the next resistance level for bulls is at $5,250, while bears aim to suppress prices below the support level of $4,670 [5] - The initial resistance for gold is at last week's high of $5,113.90, with preliminary support at $4,988.60; for silver, the core target for bulls is to challenge last week's high of $92.015, and if it can hold above $85, its rebound momentum will further increase [5]