Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-02-10 13:43Core Viewpoint - The pig farming industry is undergoing a deep adjustment in a relaxed supply environment, with overall pig prices declining throughout 2025, despite a slight year-end recovery, remaining at relatively low levels. The competition is shifting from scale expansion to efficiency and collaboration within the industry chain [2][5][26]. Supply Capacity Analysis - The pig farming industry is expected to face supply pressure in the first half of 2026, with a projected output of 719.73 million pigs in 2025, a 2.4% increase, and a pork production of 59.38 million tons, a 4.1% increase [2][4]. - The breeding efficiency is improving, with the average number of weaned piglets per sow increasing from 18.32 in 2021 to 24.03 in 2024, indicating a reduction in production costs [4][6]. - The industry is experiencing increased concentration, with over 70% of pig farming being scaled, and the top 20 companies accounting for over 30% of output [4][5]. Demand Matching Capability Analysis - Overall pork consumption is expected to show weak recovery in 2026, influenced by population and income levels, with a projected per capita pork consumption of 26.6 kg per year, a 5.4% decrease from the previous year [8][9]. - The demand for pork is being affected by the availability of alternative meats, which may divert consumption away from pork [8][9]. - The overall pig price trend in 2025 was downward, with slight year-end recovery, but still at low levels, influenced by seasonal demand and supply pressures [9][11]. Industry Chain Position Analysis - The pig farming industry is positioned as a conversion link in the value chain, connecting upstream feed and breeding industries with downstream slaughtering and processing sectors [12]. - The bargaining power of upstream suppliers is weak, while the downstream bargaining power varies, with leading companies establishing long-term supply agreements to enhance pricing power [12][13]. - The competitive landscape is shifting towards efficiency and collaboration, with leading companies focusing on integrated operations across the supply chain [14][16]. Innovation Capability Analysis - The industry is guided by policies aimed at stabilizing production and improving quality, with a focus on enhancing breeding efficiency and reducing costs through technological advancements [17][19]. - Leading companies are leveraging technology to restructure cost advantages, while smaller firms are encouraged to innovate in niche markets [20][21]. - The regulatory environment is evolving towards more systematic management, emphasizing compliance and quality control across the supply chain [19]. Credit Rating Situation Analysis - In 2025, the agricultural sector issued 75 bonds totaling 51.134 billion yuan, with major issuers being leading companies like Muyuan Foods and New Hope [21][22]. - The industry is experiencing a divergence in credit quality, with larger firms maintaining stable financing channels while smaller firms face tighter financing conditions [25][27]. - The overall credit risk in the pig farming industry is manageable, with stronger companies expected to solidify their credit standing amid ongoing market pressures [27].